Bitcoin Breakout May Not Happen Until After U.S. Election

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Bitcoin Breakout May Not Happen Until After U.S. Election

Cryptocurrency markets experienced a sharp drop on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $92,006 BTC/USDT on Gate.io during the U.S. trading session. This decline marked the end of what had been an unexpectedly strong September for digital assets. Bitcoin saw a 3.5% decrease over the past 24 hours, while Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) fared slightly better, dropping by 3% and 2% respectively. Meanwhile, major altcoins within the broader CoinDesk 20 index, including Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Chainlink (LINK), all saw declines of over 5%.

Crypto-related stocks also faced steep losses. Several prominent bitcoin mining companies, including Marathon Digital (MARA), Bitdeer (BTDR), Hut 8 (HUT), and CleanSpark (CLSK), fell between 6% and 11%. Coinbase (COIN), the leading cryptocurrency exchange, dropped by more than 7%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw a decline of over 3% just before markets closed.

In traditional markets, U.S. equity indexes remained flat for most of the day before falling later in the session, while key European markets saw losses ranging from 1% to 2%. In Japan, the new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that monetary policy needed to remain accommodative, following a 5% drop in the Nikkei earlier in the day after his unexpected elevation to the role.

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that future rate cuts may not be as aggressive as September’s 50 basis point cut. He explained that as long as the economy evolves as expected, policy will gradually move toward a neutral stance. He also emphasized that decisions would be made meeting by meeting, as economic risks are seen from multiple sides. Powell added that the U.S. economy is generally in solid shape, and the central bank intends to use its tools to maintain this stability. 

When Could Bitcoin Break Out?

Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is on track to finish September with a positive return, an unusual feat given the month’s historically poor performance for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin was up nearly 8% for the month, making it the best September performance since 2013, according to CoinGlass data. At the time of writing, trade BTC perpetual futures at $91,986 BTC/USDT on Gate.io exchange.

A positive return in September could be a promising indicator for October. Historically, when Bitcoin has closed September in the green, it tends to post additional gains in the following month. October has earned the nickname “Uptober” for being one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, showing positive monthly returns in 9 of the last 11 years.

However, Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree investment management, cautioned that expectations of a strong October could lead to surprises. When an idea becomes overly popular, he said, it means many investors may have already positioned themselves in advance, potentially limiting further upside.

Morris pointed out that Bitcoin’s price historically consolidates for around six months after halving events before making new highs. This year’s halving occurred on April 19, so if the pattern holds, Bitcoin could break out to new highs toward the end of October.

Options traders are more cautious, suggesting that a significant rally may not occur until after the U.S. elections in November. According to Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, traders are positioning themselves for further weakness in the near term. He explained that recent market behavior suggests a bias toward downside volatility until late October, after which the market may shift in favor of a post-election rally. 

See also: Best crypto trading strategies

BTC Price Prediction 2025

Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 suggest a wide range of potential outcomes, driven by factors such as institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and the aftermath of the 2024 Bitcoin halving.

One optimistic forecast comes from analysts who believe Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000 by 2025. This is partly due to growing institutional acceptance and the potential for increased liquidity from Bitcoin ETFs, which have already attracted significant investment. Additionally, broader economic factors, like potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could create a favorable environment for assets like Bitcoin, which is often viewed as a hedge against inflation​.

On the more bullish side, some experts, including technical analyst Aurelien Ohayon, predict Bitcoin could surge to $204,258.69 later in 2030. This is based on historical price patterns following previous halving events, which typically lead to a supply squeeze and upward price pressure​. Another view suggests that Bitcoin could see a steady rise to around $100,000 in early 2025, with a significant increase later in the year.

However, it’s important to note that predictions vary, and some are more conservative. For instance, Binance projects a Bitcoin price of approximately $58,000 by 2025, suggesting a more tempered growth outlook. Ultimately, while 2025 could see significant price growth for Bitcoin, the market remains volatile, and external factors like regulatory changes could impact these predictions.

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