Toncoin has been struggling to maintain its momentum amid a challenging market environment. Over the past month, the token has experienced a steady decline of 6%, now traded at approximately $5.19 TON/USDT on Gate.io. This recent dip highlights a broader trend of diminishing buying interest, which is putting increased downward pressure on the asset.
Despite its strong association with Telegram, which initially fueled interest and adoption, Toncoin is now encountering resistance as market sentiment shifts. As a result, bearish forces are gaining traction, leaving the token at risk of further declines. Traders and investors are closely watching key technical indicators, which suggest that Toncoin could be approaching a 30-day low if selling pressure continues to mount.
In this article, we explore the key factors contributing to Toncoin’s recent struggles, including its weakening technical indicators and the growing influence of bearish sentiment. We also examine potential scenarios for the token’s price movement in the coming days, considering both downside risks and the possibility of a bullish recovery.
Toncoin Battles with Diminishing Demand
Currently, Toncoin is trading below its Ichimoku Cloud, a tool that assesses market trends, momentum, and potential areas of support and resistance. When an asset falls below the Cloud, it signals a downtrend, which in Toncoin’s case suggests that sellers hold control. The Cloud now acts as a barrier, making it harder for Toncoin to mount a recovery unless there is a significant increase in buyer interest.
Additionally, the Aroon Up Line for Toncoin has hit 0%, indicating that the token hasn’t reached any new highs during the recent analysis period. The Aroon indicator is used to determine trend strength, and when the Up Line is at 0%, it reveals a lack of upward momentum. This reinforces the bearish sentiment, signaling that buyers are stepping back.
Supporting this outlook, the Elder-Ray Index, a measure of market pressure, shows a reading of -0.11. This negative value confirms that selling pressure is currently outweighing buying pressure, giving sellers the upper hand in the market.
TON Price Outlook and 2025
Should the selling pressure intensify, Toncoin could experience a 15% price drop, with the next key support level resting at $4.45, a figure last seen on September 4. This level, identified through the Fibonacci Retracement tool, is a critical point for the token’s price.
However, this bearish projection could be reversed if there’s a sudden surge in demand. If buying pressure rises, Toncoin might break through the resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud, potentially triggering a rally that could push the price up toward $7.46.
Looking ahead to 2025, Toncoin (TON) shows strong potential for growth based on several key factors within the blockchain and cryptocurrency market. Analysts suggest that the price of TON could range between $9 and $10 by the end of 2025, reflecting an optimistic outlook due to the expanding TON ecosystem and its integration with Telegram, which boasts over 900 million users. This broad user base offers Toncoin a unique edge in mass adoption compared to other blockchain platforms.
The ecosystem’s rapid growth, especially in decentralized applications (dApps), gaming, and DeFi, is anticipated to be a major driver for Toncoin’s future price surge. With ongoing development and increasing user engagement, Toncoin is expected to maintain positive momentum, potentially reaching as high as $10.91 in 2025. Developers and investors are particularly excited about the blockchain’s technical advantages, such as its ability to handle high transaction volumes through sharding, which enhances its scalability​.
Furthermore, the TON Foundation’s continued support for developers through grants and the anticipated launch of additional dApps integrated into Telegram could further boost demand for the token. This, combined with broader market trends, suggests Toncoin could see steady growth leading up to 2025​.
TON Competition
Toncoin faces competition from several prominent blockchains, particularly those in the Layer-1 space, which focus on scalability, speed, and decentralized applications (dApps). Here are the main competitors:
Ethereum (ETH): As the largest and most established smart contract platform, Ethereum remains a formidable competitor. While it faces challenges with scalability, Ethereum has a strong developer base, extensive dApp ecosystem, and significant institutional adoption. Ethereum’s Layer-2 solutions, like Arbitrum and Optimism, are also working to enhance its scalability​.
Solana (SOL): Known for its high throughput and low transaction costs, Solana is a direct competitor to Toncoin in terms of transaction speed. Solana’s ability to handle a large volume of transactions per second (TPS) makes it attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming applications​.
Binance Smart Chain (BSC): With its lower fees and growing dApp ecosystem, BSC offers an alternative to both Ethereum and Toncoin. Binance’s strong backing and integration with its centralized exchange help drive its widespread adoption​.
Polkadot (DOT): Polkadot’s focus on interoperability and enabling different blockchains to communicate seamlessly puts it in a strong position as a competitor. Its parachain technology offers scalable solutions for decentralized projects, making it an appealing option for developers.
Avalanche (AVAX): Avalanche offers high scalability through its unique consensus mechanism and subnets. It competes with Toncoin in terms of speed and scalability, and it has rapidly gained traction in DeFi and gaming sectors​.
These projects challenge Toncoin by offering similar or better scalability, speed, and dApp capabilities, with varying degrees of user adoption and developer ecosystems. However, Toncoin’s integration with Telegram gives it a unique advantage that sets it apart from these competitors​.
